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03/06/2010 - Palm Beach Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Camilo Villegas posted a three-under 67 on Saturday to take sole possession of the lead after the third round of the Honda Classic.
Villegas finished 54 holes at 11-under 199 and is three strokes clear at PGA National.
Vijay Singh, 1999 champion, had a one-under 69 on Saturday and is tied for second place with Australian Nathan Green, who carded a three-under 67 in round three. The pair is knotted at eight-under 202.
George McNeill fired a four-under 66 and shares fourth with Matt Every, who managed a one-under 69 on Saturday. The duo finished at minus-six.
This has been a whirlwind week for the leader.
Villegas started the week in his native Colombia to host the Nationwide Tour event being staged there. He returned in time for Thursday's first round and grabbed a piece of the second-round lead after a Friday 66.
"It got me in a good mood. Even though it's been a long week, it was awesome," said Villegas of his early-week trip.
On Saturday, Villegas parred his first two holes, but kicked in a short birdie putt at the par-five third. He made it two in a row thanks to another short birdie putt at the fourth and three holes later, ran home a 30-footer for birdie.
Villegas was 11-under par and three shots ahead. He made a 21-footer for birdie at the ninth to move four clear, but struggled immediately after he made the turn.
Villegas couldn't get up and down from a bunker at the 10th, but got the stroke back after a 19-foot birdie putt at 11. He missed the green and an eight-foot par save at 12.
Green got to nine-under with a tap-in birdie at 15, then Villegas three-putted for bogey from almost 40 feet at the 14th. His lead was only a stroke, but Villegas played a tough hole brilliantly to extend his cushion.
At the 16th, Villegas hammered his drive down the fairway and hit a great approach to 10 feet. He sank the birdie putt to move two ahead, then when Green bogeyed the last, Villegas reclaimed his three-shot lead.
He parred the last two and took the 54-hole lead for the second time on tour. The other time Villegas was in front after three rounds was the 2008 BMW Championship. He went on to win that event and the Tour Championship for his only two victories on tour.
Most observers believe Villegas should have more trophies on the mantle, but he's philosophical about it.
"It's all about attitude," said Villegas, who was third at the WGC- Accenture Match Play Championship and the second-round co-leader last week in Phoenix. "Last year, even though I played 27 tournaments, I only missed three cuts and made the cut in every major. I felt I should have played a little better. I decided to look at the good side of it."
Anthony Kim shared the lead with Villegas after the second round, but bogeyed his last two holes in round three and shot a three-over 73. He is tied for sixth place with Michael Connell, who had a one-under 69 and joined Kim at five-under 205.
J.B. Holmes (66) and Graeme McDowell (71) are knotted in eighth place at minus-four.
NOTES: Sam Saunders, the grandson of Arnold Palmer, posted his third straight one-under 69 and is tied for 10th at three-under par...Nearby fires left PGA National a little cloudy, but play was never stopped.
<< No. 25 Xavier downs St. Bonaventure
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jordan Crawford scored 22 points to lead
25th-ranked Xavier to a 93-72 win over St. Bonaventure in the regular-season
finale for both teams at Cintas Center.
Jamel McLean poured in 15 points for the M
<< Juve returns to top four
Florence, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus moved back into the top four in
the Serie A table on Saturday as Fabio Grosso scored in the 68th minute of a
2-1 Juve win over Fiorentina at the Artemio Franchi.
Diego put the visitors in f
<< Awesome Act gets Gotham Stakes victory
Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Post-time favorite Awesome Act, ridden by
Julien Leparoux, scampered away down the stretch to capture Saturday's
$250,000 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. The 1 1/16-mile Gotham is the final
local p
<< NAC halts PSV's unbeaten run
Breda, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PSV Eindhoven suffered its first league
defeat of the season on Saturday at NAC as Robert Schilder scored the winning
goal in the 72nd minute.
Orlando Engelaar put PSV in front after 18 minutes, bu
Real Madrid joins Barca on top >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Van der Vaart's stoppage-time goal
gave Real Madrid a 3-2 comeback win over Sevilla at the Santiago Bernabeu on
Saturday, while Barcelona could only manage a 2-2 draw with Almeria, leaving
the two
Packers retain OT Clifton >>
Green Bay, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Green Bay Packers have re-signed
offensive tackle Chad Clifton, keeping the stalwart lineman that has started
for the team since 2000.
Terms were not released, but the deal was originally repo
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Recaps >>
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Sherrer hit a jumper with four
seconds left to lead the ninth-seeded South Alabama Jaguars to a 52-51 victory
over the eighth-seeded Florida Atlantic Owls in the first round of the Sun
Belt Co
Pitt routs Rutgers to close out regular season >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gilbert Brown poured in a game-high 19
points while pulling down six rebounds, as the 17th-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers
destroyed the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 83-54, in the regular-season finale for
both cl
MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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MySportsbook.com is the foremost online sportsbook offering Internet wagering to its worldwide customers. Fully licensed and regulated in St. John’s, Antigua since 1997, MySportsbook.com offers a complete range of online casino games, sports betting lines, poker tournaments and horse racing offtrack betting daily through its portfolio of companies and managed services. With over 7 years of experience, MySportsbook.com has become one of the most respected companies in the gaming industry by providing unparalleled 24/7 customer support and timely payouts. MySportsbook.com is part of the SportingBet PLC group of companies that is publicly-traded on the London Stock Exchange ( LSE ) under the symbol SBT.L. MySportsbook.com provides a secure environment for sports and casino wagering and has been featured in numerous media outlets, including MAXIM Magazine, Cigar Aficionado, and CNN’s Paula Zahn Now among others.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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